October 7, 2022

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Modelos matematicas contradicen encuestas en plebiscito chileno

Empresas dedicated to the analysis of mathematical models and as winners of the Approbo option in the Chilean constitutional plebiscite, which contradicts the tendency of polls that until now have given the triumph of rejection.

Más de 15 million de ciudadanos deben acudir a las urns el domingo 4 de septiembre para definir el futuro del proyecto de Carta Magna, redactado por una comisión con amplia representation de la sociedad, includios los pueblos indígenas.

Chile alista cierre de campaña con vistas al plebiscito

Las encuestas de intención de voto, managed and disseminated by the great media of communication, insisted during the whole process that the majority will be pronounced against the text.

Sin embargo, in an article publicado today por el diario El Mostrador two firms specialized in artificial intelligence and mathematical modeling of opinions, sentiments and language expressed in social networks, affirmed that the Apruebo will win with more than 55 points of advantage.

El doctor en Filosofía Francisco Vergara, miembro del grupo Espacio Político, explicó que submittedieron a análisis data extracted during más de 500 hours from the social networks y eso reflejó un claro apoy a la Fundamental Ley.

A similar methodology allowed predicting the victory of Gabriel Boric with 57 percent over José Antonio Kast in the second round of presidential elections and the final result was 55.62, explained Vergara.

In the same way, the Brazilian company Daoura, specialized in the measurement of what is called “the sensation of social feeling”, always through digital networks, da al Apruebo el 56 per ciento de posibilities de victoria.

La diferencia de sus resultados respecto a las encuestas, señalan, es que las ultimas se basa en la realization de preguntas en determinado social sector, mientras ellos escuchan y procesan lo que la gente dice.

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Both firms recognize, sin embargo, that the definitive results of the plebiscite will confirm or no studies are realized. (Prensa Latina)